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Business

OP-Pohjola trims Finland growth outlook to 1% in 2026 on rising risks, energy costs
OP-Pohjola trims Finland growth outlook to 1% in 2026 on rising risks, energy costs

Finland’s economic recovery is losing momentum. Finnish banking and insurance behemoth OP-Pohjola has cut its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1 percent, down from 1.5 percent, reflecting rising geopolitical risks and energy costs, Yle reported today.

The downgrade highlights how exposed small, open economies remain to global disruptions. The conflict in the Middle East has pushed oil prices higher, feeding inflation and dampening consumer confidence. Businesses, facing greater uncertainty, are expected to delay investment decisions in the coming months.

OP-Pohjola notes that the outlook hinges heavily on energy markets and broader international conditions. A prolonged crisis could tip Finland into recession. The bank’s baseline assumes oil prices ease to around $70 per barrel by summer, stabilizing inflationary pressures.

Authors

Emmi Laine is head of business content at Listeds and our lead for finance and business coverage. She sets the editorial agenda, interviews Nordic business leaders, and writes stories, newsletters, and social content on timely market and corporate topics. Emmi brings nearly eight years of experience from Shanghai's Yicai Global / Yicai Media Group, where she was awarded for reporting on China’s economy, finance sector, and technology innovation. She holds an MSc in Innovation and Entrepreneurship from ESADE Business School in Barcelona and a Master’s degree in International Design Business Management from Aalto University. She also holds a Bachelor’s degree in Culture Studies with a major in Journalism from Stockholm University and has studied Mandarin Chinese and Chinese culture. Emmi is a Finnish citizen and has lived in Finland, Sweden, China, and Portugal.

Emmi Laine is head of business content at Listeds and our lead for finance and business coverage. She sets the editorial agenda, interviews Nordic business leaders, and writes stories, newsletters, and social content on timely market and corporate topics. Emmi brings nearly eight years of experience from Shanghai's Yicai Global / Yicai Media Group, where she was awarded for reporting on China’s economy, finance sector, and technology innovation. She holds an MSc in Innovation and Entrepreneurship from ESADE Business School in Barcelona and a Master’s degree in International Design Business Management from Aalto University. She also holds a Bachelor’s degree in Culture Studies with a major in Journalism from Stockholm University and has studied Mandarin Chinese and Chinese culture. Emmi is a Finnish citizen and has lived in Finland, Sweden, China, and Portugal.

Authors

Emmi Laine is head of business content at Listeds and our lead for finance and business coverage. She sets the editorial agenda, interviews Nordic business leaders, and writes stories, newsletters, and social content on timely market and corporate topics. Emmi brings nearly eight years of experience from Shanghai's Yicai Global / Yicai Media Group, where she was awarded for reporting on China’s economy, finance sector, and technology innovation. She holds an MSc in Innovation and Entrepreneurship from ESADE Business School in Barcelona and a Master’s degree in International Design Business Management from Aalto University. She also holds a Bachelor’s degree in Culture Studies with a major in Journalism from Stockholm University and has studied Mandarin Chinese and Chinese culture. Emmi is a Finnish citizen and has lived in Finland, Sweden, China, and Portugal.

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