Jan 21, 2026
Nordea said the global economy is set to grow steadily in the coming years, even as geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated.
In its latest economic outlook, the bank expects global growth of around 3.3% to persist through 2026, supported by fiscal stimulus, favorable financial conditions, and investments in areas such as artificial intelligence, according to the report published on January 21.
“The global economy was characterised by a high degree of resilience in a tumultuous 2025, with the prospect of renewed growth in 2026,” said Chief Economist Helge Pedersen. He added that despite risks linked to trade tensions, public debt, and geopolitics, “it is hard to see growth seriously derailing” under the baseline scenario.
Finland is expected to gradually emerge from stagnation. Nordea forecasts GDP growth of 1% in 2026, accelerating to 2% in 2027, supported by exports and a slow recovery in private consumption. “The conditions for recovery are present,” the bank said, citing stronger household balance sheets and early signs of improvement in manufacturing, even as construction remains weak.
Sweden’s outlook is more upbeat. Nordea expects GDP growth of 3% in 2026, driven by a rebound in household consumption and resilient exports. “Households have regained confidence, and conditions are in place for consumption to substantially increase,” said Torbjörn Isaksson, chief analyst for the Swedish market at Nordea, while noting that global security and trade policy risks remain.
