Currently there appears to be a widespread feeling of rising uncertainty and a lack of a shared vision for the future. During Sweden’s recent election campaign commentators repeatedly asked where the larger visions for the country had gone. Amid promises of quick fixes and tactical positioning, the question of what society we should build seemed harder to answer. Similar examples with voices calling for a new vision have also been heard in the other Nordic countries recently. The most obvious example is perhaps Finnish Sitra that explicitly describes the need for “an inspiring new promise about the future”.
Considering the turbulent situation in the world in the last decade, it is perhaps not surprising that we find feelings of uncertainty. It is in fact something we could expect if we apply the long-term cyclical perspective of thinkers such as Neil Howe who describes how long cycles shape the characteristics of our societies and how the change from cycle to cycle typically results in crises. Viewed through the ‘wheel of seasons’ model developed by my colleagues Mats Lindgren and Jörgen Jedbratt, our current situation may represent a transition from winter to spring, during which crises will lead to new dominant paradigms. If reality were to follow the model, this should mean that we are slowly shifting towards an increased focus on long-term perspectives and finally also a rising belief in a positive future.
Another sign of the uncertainty is the rising interest in scenario planning. This is a well-known pattern that goes back to the oil crisis of the 1970s when Shell’s scenario planning rose to fame and it is now perhaps the most familiar tool in the foresight toolbox. There is furthermore a general acceptance of scenario planning as a relevant tool for our time, but if we want to get broad participation and support for changes the map provided by the scenarios also needs to be accompanied by something more visionary.
The Nordic effect
So, if we are approaching a period of renewal maybe it is time to start thinking about how Nordic companies and other organisations could help bring this new future into being and shape it? How can we contribute to the creation of a new vision that can guide and speed up necessary changes so that we can balance sustainability and resilience, productivity and family life, and so on? Even though there exists a joint Nordic vision for 2030 that was adopted by the Nordic Council of Ministers in 2019 this is apparently not sufficient (and to be honest, how many of you have read it? I have, but that’s more or less required as part of my job).
Maybe it is safe to say that it is time for a new Nordic vision? And maybe this time we should start the process as soon as possible ourselves in our own organisations so that we together can create small pieces of the great puzzle that would make up a new shared vision.
For boards, this means connecting the vision to investment priorities, capabilities and partnerships, and deciding how the organisation can contribute to a wider Nordic ambition.
Questions we need to answer in this process include:
What future do we want to contribute to over the next ten to fifteen years?
What can we influence? Which partners and capabilities will we need?
What decisions do we need to make?
The last point may seem a bit obvious but as most of us know, foresight without action means nothing. There is in fact even a risk that foresight in some cases could become counterproductive and hinder necessary changes.
Decades ago, Kets de Vries and Miller described how some organisations become trapped in endless studies and analyses without taking action. Today, the abundance of foresight consultants and methods can give this tendency even more room to grow. An organisation may find itself contemplating a million possible futures, watching doors close one by one while trying to identify the perfect course of action. Foresight should help us choose a direction, prepare for different outcomes and move forward. A good analysis that leads to action is better than a perfect analysis that does not.
What's next
Let’s apply the tools from our foresight toolkits and start working! A new shared vision is needed and unless you take part in shaping it someone else will. So, let’s start small in our own organisations and launch processes to formulate our own visions and in this process also define our roles and purpose. This is often best done using collaborative methods – not just for the formulation of the vision but also to get people on board from the start because another thing that we need to remember is this. Scenarios and visions can give us a map of the future. But we still have to make the journey ourselves.
The Nordic Foresight Network is a network of foresight professionals advancing futures thinking across the Nordic region.
Sources
Mats Lindgren - Winter is Coming or Springtime with Trump, 2016
Kets de Vries and Miller - The Neurotic Organization, 1984
Neil Howe - The Fourth Turning: Why American 'Crisis' May Last Until 2030, 2020
Monteiro and Dal Borgo - Supporting decision making with strategic foresight, 2023
Nordic prime ministers - Our Vision 2030, 2019
Anna Solovjew-Wartiovaara - Sitra Megatrends Report, 2026
·
5 min read
Currently there appears to be a widespread feeling of rising uncertainty and a lack of a shared vision for the future. During Sweden’s recent election campaign commentators repeatedly asked where the larger visions for the country had gone. Amid promises of quick fixes and tactical positioning, the question of what society we should build seemed harder to answer. Similar examples with voices calling for a new vision have also been heard in the other Nordic countries recently. The most obvious example is perhaps Finnish Sitra that explicitly describes the need for “an inspiring new promise about the future”.
Considering the turbulent situation in the world in the last decade, it is perhaps not surprising that we find feelings of uncertainty. It is in fact something we could expect if we apply the long-term cyclical perspective of thinkers such as Neil Howe who describes how long cycles shape the characteristics of our societies and how the change from cycle to cycle typically results in crises. Viewed through the ‘wheel of seasons’ model developed by my colleagues Mats Lindgren and Jörgen Jedbratt, our current situation may represent a transition from winter to spring, during which crises will lead to new dominant paradigms. If reality were to follow the model, this should mean that we are slowly shifting towards an increased focus on long-term perspectives and finally also a rising belief in a positive future.
Another sign of the uncertainty is the rising interest in scenario planning. This is a well-known pattern that goes back to the oil crisis of the 1970s when Shell’s scenario planning rose to fame and it is now perhaps the most familiar tool in the foresight toolbox. There is furthermore a general acceptance of scenario planning as a relevant tool for our time, but if we want to get broad participation and support for changes the map provided by the scenarios also needs to be accompanied by something more visionary.
The Nordic effect
So, if we are approaching a period of renewal maybe it is time to start thinking about how Nordic companies and other organisations could help bring this new future into being and shape it? How can we contribute to the creation of a new vision that can guide and speed up necessary changes so that we can balance sustainability and resilience, productivity and family life, and so on? Even though there exists a joint Nordic vision for 2030 that was adopted by the Nordic Council of Ministers in 2019 this is apparently not sufficient (and to be honest, how many of you have read it? I have, but that’s more or less required as part of my job).
Maybe it is safe to say that it is time for a new Nordic vision? And maybe this time we should start the process as soon as possible ourselves in our own organisations so that we together can create small pieces of the great puzzle that would make up a new shared vision.
For boards, this means connecting the vision to investment priorities, capabilities and partnerships, and deciding how the organisation can contribute to a wider Nordic ambition.
Questions we need to answer in this process include:
What future do we want to contribute to over the next ten to fifteen years?
What can we influence? Which partners and capabilities will we need?
What decisions do we need to make?
The last point may seem a bit obvious but as most of us know, foresight without action means nothing. There is in fact even a risk that foresight in some cases could become counterproductive and hinder necessary changes.
Decades ago, Kets de Vries and Miller described how some organisations become trapped in endless studies and analyses without taking action. Today, the abundance of foresight consultants and methods can give this tendency even more room to grow. An organisation may find itself contemplating a million possible futures, watching doors close one by one while trying to identify the perfect course of action. Foresight should help us choose a direction, prepare for different outcomes and move forward. A good analysis that leads to action is better than a perfect analysis that does not.
What's next
Let’s apply the tools from our foresight toolkits and start working! A new shared vision is needed and unless you take part in shaping it someone else will. So, let’s start small in our own organisations and launch processes to formulate our own visions and in this process also define our roles and purpose. This is often best done using collaborative methods – not just for the formulation of the vision but also to get people on board from the start because another thing that we need to remember is this. Scenarios and visions can give us a map of the future. But we still have to make the journey ourselves.
The Nordic Foresight Network is a network of foresight professionals advancing futures thinking across the Nordic region.
Sources
Mats Lindgren - Winter is Coming or Springtime with Trump, 2016
Kets de Vries and Miller - The Neurotic Organization, 1984
Neil Howe - The Fourth Turning: Why American 'Crisis' May Last Until 2030, 2020
Monteiro and Dal Borgo - Supporting decision making with strategic foresight, 2023
Nordic prime ministers - Our Vision 2030, 2019
Anna Solovjew-Wartiovaara - Sitra Megatrends Report, 2026
The Nordic Foresight Column is a monthly series by Nordic Foresight Network in which foresight professionals from the five Nordic countries examine the shifts shaping the region.
Previously in the series: The Next Nordic advantage - What if talent, capital and innovation start flowing north? by Minna Koskelo
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