Europe is talking loudly about rearmament and strategic autonomy. The harder question is whether private risk capital is showing up to match the rhetoric. One mapping of the venture landscape suggests the talk is still ahead of the money.

Europe, the argument now runs, must take responsibility for its own defence, and that cannot be done on public budgets alone. It requires private capital flowing into defence, security and resilience, and it requires investors to move past the reflexive exclusion of "sin stocks" that long kept weapons and lethal capability off the responsible-investment menu. Investment policies are changing. The question is whether they are changing far enough, and fast enough.

That question is easy to assert and hard to answer. So Catharina Candolin, a board member at the listed cybersecurity company SSH Communications Security and a strategy-and-preparedness specialist at OP Pohjola, set out to test one slice of it. 

Across a series of LinkedIn posts she built, then crowdsourced, a working map: how many Europe-domiciled venture funds, broadly themed around defence, security and resilience, actually exist today, either deploying capital or out raising. Each round of comments and messages sharpened it. By her own framing it is a work in progress, not a final tally. Venture capital is only one instrument among several, and the picture is partial by design. But it is a concrete, countable proxy for how much dedicated risk capital the continent has assembled behind the theme.

Listeds has verified and enriched that list, and is now extending it. The origination is hers; the expansion is a shared effort, and it is still under way.

Her criteria were deliberately strict on structure and deliberately broad on theme. To qualify, a fund had to be Europe-domiciled (a European office attached to a US fund did not count); a genuine venture structure (corporate venture arms, investment companies and sovereign or state vehicles were excluded); and themed around defence in the wide sense, taking in cyber, energy, advanced materials, space and dual-use technology, while leaving out funds too generalist to count. Everything had to be publicly verifiable.

What the map shows

The verified list runs to 49 funds, and its shape is more revealing than its length. Most of the money is small: 19 funds sit below €50 million, the emerging and specialist micro-funds where much of Europe's early defence-tech conviction currently lives. Ten more occupy the €50–100 million middle. Only 20 funds clear €100 million, and within that band the genuinely large, dedicated pools are scarce: a handful above €300 million, led by DTCP's €500 million Project Liberty and Paladin's €342 million cyber fund, thinning out quickly below them.

For scale, S&P Global counted around 386 Europe-focused private equity and venture funds in 2024. A defence, security and resilience slice of 49, several of them still raising rather than deploying, is a modest share for a theme Europe now calls existential.

By status, the list splits roughly three to two: around 31 funds are actively investing, while 18 are still raising toward a target, which means a meaningful share of the headline capacity is announced ambition rather than committed capital. For an investor reading the field, that distinction matters: a target is not a cheque.

The through-line is the one Europe keeps circling back to. The continent is thin on risk capital, and defence is no exception. The scaled, dedicated venture pools that a serious rearmament of the private sector would imply are present, but few, and several of the largest are still being raised.

What that capital is chasing is real enough. European defence tech is building fast: Helsing's autonomous-systems software, Quantum Systems' reconnaissance drones, Frankenburg and Tytan on drone interceptors and Finland's own ICEYE in satellite imaging. The companies are raising, and 2025 was a record year, with European defence, security and resilience startups taking in around $8.7 billion

But much of the biggest money still comes from outside Europe: in the period covered, US investors supplied around two-thirds of the capital raised by European defence-tech companies

That is the gap this map measures: not whether the companies exist, but whether Europe has built enough dedicated funds of its own to back them.

A Nordic and Baltic reading, with care

The geography is suggestive rather than conclusive. On this snapshot Germany leads with eleven funds and the United Kingdom follows with seven, the rest spread across the continent. 

Finland appears twice, and the pair tells a story in miniature: Cloudberry VC is actively deploying, while Sparkmind Capital's second fund is still raising. Its focus sits at the growth stage rather than the earliest startups. The Baltics punch above their economic weight (Lithuania fields four funds, Estonia two), a reminder that proximity to the threat tends to concentrate both attention and capital.

The honest caveat

This is the venture slice only. Defence and resilience companies also draw on growth equity, project and infrastructure finance, government co-investment and the primes' own balance sheets, none of which this exercise captures.

The list as it stands (49 Europe-domiciled VC funds across three size bands, with live investing-versus-raising status, and still growing) is below. If you want to see the live updated version, you can visit our insights page.

49 / 49 funds
FundCategoryCountrySizeStatus
DTCP Project LibertyScaled defence, dual-use & resilience capital🇩🇪 Germany
€500M
Raising / target
Paladin Cyber Fund IIScaled defence, dual-use & resilience capital🇬🇧 United Kingdom
€342M
Investing / deploying
Project A Fund VScaled defence, dual-use & resilience capital🇩🇪 Germany
€325M
Investing / deploying
World FundScaled defence, dual-use & resilience capital🇩🇪 Germany
€300M
Investing / deploying
EDT VenturesScaled defence, dual-use & resilience capital🇬🇧 United Kingdom
€300M
Raising / target
Join Capital Fund IIIScaled defence, dual-use & resilience capital🇩🇪 Germany
€235M
Raising / target
Vsquared IIScaled defence, dual-use & resilience capital🇩🇪 Germany
€214M
Investing / deploying
FORWARD.one IIIScaled defence, dual-use & resilience capital🇳🇱 Netherlands
€200M
Investing / deploying
OTB Ventures Fund 2Scaled defence, dual-use & resilience capital🇳🇱 Netherlands
€170M
Investing / deploying
Alpine Space Ventures (Fund I)Scaled defence, dual-use & resilience capital🇩🇪 Germany
€170M
Investing / deploying
Hyperion FundScaled defence, dual-use & resilience capital🇪🇸 Spain
€150M
Investing / deploying
Presto Tech HorizonsScaled defence, dual-use & resilience capital🇨🇿 Czechia
€150M
Investing / deploying
Expeditions Fund IIScaled defence, dual-use & resilience capital🇵🇱 Poland
€150M
Raising / target
Keen D&S Tech FundScaled defence, dual-use & resilience capital🇳🇱 Netherlands
€150M
Raising / target
Sparkmind Fund IIScaled defence, dual-use & resilience capital🇫🇮 Finland
€150M
Raising / target
Expansion VCScaled defence, dual-use & resilience capital🇫🇷 France
€142M
Investing / deploying
Matterwave Industrial Tech IIScaled defence, dual-use & resilience capital🇩🇪 Germany
€130M
Investing / deploying
Omnes Real Tech 2Scaled defence, dual-use & resilience capital🇫🇷 France
€112M
Raising / target
NewSpace Capital Fund IScaled defence, dual-use & resilience capital🇱🇺 Luxembourg
€105M
Investing / deploying
Baryon FundFocused early-stage funds🇱🇺 Luxembourg
€100M
Investing / deploying
Adara Ventures IVFocused early-stage funds🇪🇸 Spain
€100M
Raising / target
Verne Capital (Fund I)Focused early-stage funds🇩🇪 Germany
€100M
Raising / target
Seraphim SpaceFocused early-stage funds🇬🇧 United Kingdom
€92M
Investing / deploying
PolarionFocused early-stage funds🇳🇴 Norway
€86M
Raising / target
Ananda Impact Fund VFocused early-stage funds🇩🇪 Germany
€73M
Raising / target
BalnordFocused early-stage funds🇱🇺 Luxembourg
€70M
Investing / deploying
Primo ClimateFocused early-stage funds🇮🇹 Italy
€60M
Investing / deploying
Primo SpaceFocused early-stage funds🇮🇹 Italy
€60M
Investing / deploying
ArchangelFocused early-stage funds🇪🇪 Estonia
€50M
Investing / deploying
Defence InvestFocused early-stage funds🇮🇪 Ireland
€50M
Raising / target
Radix VenturesEmerging / specialist micro-funds🇵🇱 Poland
€41M
Investing / deploying
Aneli CapitalEmerging / specialist micro-funds🇱🇹 Lithuania
€35M
Investing / deploying
First Momentum IIEmerging / specialist micro-funds🇩🇪 Germany
€35M
Investing / deploying
Cloudberry VCEmerging / specialist micro-funds🇫🇮 Finland
€30M
Investing / deploying
Iron Wolf CapitalEmerging / specialist micro-funds🇱🇹 Lithuania
€30M
Investing / deploying
T|Y|R.vcEmerging / specialist micro-funds🇩🇰 Denmark
€30M
Investing / deploying
Unconventional VenturesEmerging / specialist micro-funds🇩🇰 Denmark
€30M
Investing / deploying
Darkstar Ventures Fund IEmerging / specialist micro-funds🇪🇪 Estonia
€25M
Raising / target
201 VenturesEmerging / specialist micro-funds🇪🇸 Spain
€20M
Investing / deploying
Sisyphus VenturesEmerging / specialist micro-funds🇬🇧 United Kingdom
€20M
Investing / deploying
Vanagon VenturesEmerging / specialist micro-funds🇩🇪 Germany
€20M
Investing / deploying
BSV VenturesEmerging / specialist micro-funds🇱🇹 Lithuania
€15M
Investing / deploying
Baobab VenturesEmerging / specialist micro-funds🇬🇧 United Kingdom
€14M
Investing / deploying
Twin Track VenturesEmerging / specialist micro-funds🇬🇧 United Kingdom
€12M
Raising / target
Final FrontierEmerging / specialist micro-funds🇩🇰 Denmark
€4.5M
Raising / target
Angel One FundEmerging / specialist micro-funds🇺🇦 Ukraine
€2.8M
Investing / deploying
Luminova VenturesEmerging / specialist micro-funds🇨🇿 Czechia
<€50M
Raising / target
MD-One VenturesEmerging / specialist micro-funds🇬🇧 United Kingdom
<€50M
Raising / target
ScaleWolfEmerging / specialist micro-funds🇱🇹 Lithuania
<€50M
Raising / target


About the compiler.



Reading the European capital landscape for defence? Listeds brings the Nordic capital community together with the companies defining the defence, security and resilience sector at our defence investor event in Helsinki on 21 September 2026: an evening of company pitches and direct conversation for the people who allocate, research and steward capital across the region. Apply for a seat at the event.


Investor Event

Listeds Investor Event · Defence

Nordic defence is in a once-in-a-generation growth cycle. Eight listed and pre-IPO companies pitch to 100+ invited investors at Valkoinen Sali, Helsinki

21 September 2026

Investor Event

Listeds Investor Event · Defence

Nordic defence is in a once-in-a-generation growth cycle. Eight listed and pre-IPO companies pitch to 100+ invited investors at Valkoinen Sali, Helsinki

21 September 2026



|

|

Insights

The talk is ahead of the money: mapping Europe's defence VC

The talk is ahead of the money: mapping Europe's defence VC

·

5 min read

Europe is talking loudly about rearmament and strategic autonomy. The harder question is whether private risk capital is showing up to match the rhetoric. One mapping of the venture landscape suggests the talk is still ahead of the money.

Europe, the argument now runs, must take responsibility for its own defence, and that cannot be done on public budgets alone. It requires private capital flowing into defence, security and resilience, and it requires investors to move past the reflexive exclusion of "sin stocks" that long kept weapons and lethal capability off the responsible-investment menu. Investment policies are changing. The question is whether they are changing far enough, and fast enough.

That question is easy to assert and hard to answer. So Catharina Candolin, a board member at the listed cybersecurity company SSH Communications Security and a strategy-and-preparedness specialist at OP Pohjola, set out to test one slice of it. 

Across a series of LinkedIn posts she built, then crowdsourced, a working map: how many Europe-domiciled venture funds, broadly themed around defence, security and resilience, actually exist today, either deploying capital or out raising. Each round of comments and messages sharpened it. By her own framing it is a work in progress, not a final tally. Venture capital is only one instrument among several, and the picture is partial by design. But it is a concrete, countable proxy for how much dedicated risk capital the continent has assembled behind the theme.

Listeds has verified and enriched that list, and is now extending it. The origination is hers; the expansion is a shared effort, and it is still under way.

Her criteria were deliberately strict on structure and deliberately broad on theme. To qualify, a fund had to be Europe-domiciled (a European office attached to a US fund did not count); a genuine venture structure (corporate venture arms, investment companies and sovereign or state vehicles were excluded); and themed around defence in the wide sense, taking in cyber, energy, advanced materials, space and dual-use technology, while leaving out funds too generalist to count. Everything had to be publicly verifiable.

What the map shows

The verified list runs to 49 funds, and its shape is more revealing than its length. Most of the money is small: 19 funds sit below €50 million, the emerging and specialist micro-funds where much of Europe's early defence-tech conviction currently lives. Ten more occupy the €50–100 million middle. Only 20 funds clear €100 million, and within that band the genuinely large, dedicated pools are scarce: a handful above €300 million, led by DTCP's €500 million Project Liberty and Paladin's €342 million cyber fund, thinning out quickly below them.

For scale, S&P Global counted around 386 Europe-focused private equity and venture funds in 2024. A defence, security and resilience slice of 49, several of them still raising rather than deploying, is a modest share for a theme Europe now calls existential.

By status, the list splits roughly three to two: around 31 funds are actively investing, while 18 are still raising toward a target, which means a meaningful share of the headline capacity is announced ambition rather than committed capital. For an investor reading the field, that distinction matters: a target is not a cheque.

The through-line is the one Europe keeps circling back to. The continent is thin on risk capital, and defence is no exception. The scaled, dedicated venture pools that a serious rearmament of the private sector would imply are present, but few, and several of the largest are still being raised.

What that capital is chasing is real enough. European defence tech is building fast: Helsing's autonomous-systems software, Quantum Systems' reconnaissance drones, Frankenburg and Tytan on drone interceptors and Finland's own ICEYE in satellite imaging. The companies are raising, and 2025 was a record year, with European defence, security and resilience startups taking in around $8.7 billion

But much of the biggest money still comes from outside Europe: in the period covered, US investors supplied around two-thirds of the capital raised by European defence-tech companies

That is the gap this map measures: not whether the companies exist, but whether Europe has built enough dedicated funds of its own to back them.

A Nordic and Baltic reading, with care

The geography is suggestive rather than conclusive. On this snapshot Germany leads with eleven funds and the United Kingdom follows with seven, the rest spread across the continent. 

Finland appears twice, and the pair tells a story in miniature: Cloudberry VC is actively deploying, while Sparkmind Capital's second fund is still raising. Its focus sits at the growth stage rather than the earliest startups. The Baltics punch above their economic weight (Lithuania fields four funds, Estonia two), a reminder that proximity to the threat tends to concentrate both attention and capital.

The honest caveat

This is the venture slice only. Defence and resilience companies also draw on growth equity, project and infrastructure finance, government co-investment and the primes' own balance sheets, none of which this exercise captures.

The list as it stands (49 Europe-domiciled VC funds across three size bands, with live investing-versus-raising status, and still growing) is below. If you want to see the live updated version, you can visit our insights page.

49 / 49 funds
FundCategoryCountrySizeStatus
DTCP Project LibertyScaled defence, dual-use & resilience capital🇩🇪 Germany
€500M
Raising / target
Paladin Cyber Fund IIScaled defence, dual-use & resilience capital🇬🇧 United Kingdom
€342M
Investing / deploying
Project A Fund VScaled defence, dual-use & resilience capital🇩🇪 Germany
€325M
Investing / deploying
World FundScaled defence, dual-use & resilience capital🇩🇪 Germany
€300M
Investing / deploying
EDT VenturesScaled defence, dual-use & resilience capital🇬🇧 United Kingdom
€300M
Raising / target
Join Capital Fund IIIScaled defence, dual-use & resilience capital🇩🇪 Germany
€235M
Raising / target
Vsquared IIScaled defence, dual-use & resilience capital🇩🇪 Germany
€214M
Investing / deploying
FORWARD.one IIIScaled defence, dual-use & resilience capital🇳🇱 Netherlands
€200M
Investing / deploying
OTB Ventures Fund 2Scaled defence, dual-use & resilience capital🇳🇱 Netherlands
€170M
Investing / deploying
Alpine Space Ventures (Fund I)Scaled defence, dual-use & resilience capital🇩🇪 Germany
€170M
Investing / deploying
Hyperion FundScaled defence, dual-use & resilience capital🇪🇸 Spain
€150M
Investing / deploying
Presto Tech HorizonsScaled defence, dual-use & resilience capital🇨🇿 Czechia
€150M
Investing / deploying
Expeditions Fund IIScaled defence, dual-use & resilience capital🇵🇱 Poland
€150M
Raising / target
Keen D&S Tech FundScaled defence, dual-use & resilience capital🇳🇱 Netherlands
€150M
Raising / target
Sparkmind Fund IIScaled defence, dual-use & resilience capital🇫🇮 Finland
€150M
Raising / target
Expansion VCScaled defence, dual-use & resilience capital🇫🇷 France
€142M
Investing / deploying
Matterwave Industrial Tech IIScaled defence, dual-use & resilience capital🇩🇪 Germany
€130M
Investing / deploying
Omnes Real Tech 2Scaled defence, dual-use & resilience capital🇫🇷 France
€112M
Raising / target
NewSpace Capital Fund IScaled defence, dual-use & resilience capital🇱🇺 Luxembourg
€105M
Investing / deploying
Baryon FundFocused early-stage funds🇱🇺 Luxembourg
€100M
Investing / deploying
Adara Ventures IVFocused early-stage funds🇪🇸 Spain
€100M
Raising / target
Verne Capital (Fund I)Focused early-stage funds🇩🇪 Germany
€100M
Raising / target
Seraphim SpaceFocused early-stage funds🇬🇧 United Kingdom
€92M
Investing / deploying
PolarionFocused early-stage funds🇳🇴 Norway
€86M
Raising / target
Ananda Impact Fund VFocused early-stage funds🇩🇪 Germany
€73M
Raising / target
BalnordFocused early-stage funds🇱🇺 Luxembourg
€70M
Investing / deploying
Primo ClimateFocused early-stage funds🇮🇹 Italy
€60M
Investing / deploying
Primo SpaceFocused early-stage funds🇮🇹 Italy
€60M
Investing / deploying
ArchangelFocused early-stage funds🇪🇪 Estonia
€50M
Investing / deploying
Defence InvestFocused early-stage funds🇮🇪 Ireland
€50M
Raising / target
Radix VenturesEmerging / specialist micro-funds🇵🇱 Poland
€41M
Investing / deploying
Aneli CapitalEmerging / specialist micro-funds🇱🇹 Lithuania
€35M
Investing / deploying
First Momentum IIEmerging / specialist micro-funds🇩🇪 Germany
€35M
Investing / deploying
Cloudberry VCEmerging / specialist micro-funds🇫🇮 Finland
€30M
Investing / deploying
Iron Wolf CapitalEmerging / specialist micro-funds🇱🇹 Lithuania
€30M
Investing / deploying
T|Y|R.vcEmerging / specialist micro-funds🇩🇰 Denmark
€30M
Investing / deploying
Unconventional VenturesEmerging / specialist micro-funds🇩🇰 Denmark
€30M
Investing / deploying
Darkstar Ventures Fund IEmerging / specialist micro-funds🇪🇪 Estonia
€25M
Raising / target
201 VenturesEmerging / specialist micro-funds🇪🇸 Spain
€20M
Investing / deploying
Sisyphus VenturesEmerging / specialist micro-funds🇬🇧 United Kingdom
€20M
Investing / deploying
Vanagon VenturesEmerging / specialist micro-funds🇩🇪 Germany
€20M
Investing / deploying
BSV VenturesEmerging / specialist micro-funds🇱🇹 Lithuania
€15M
Investing / deploying
Baobab VenturesEmerging / specialist micro-funds🇬🇧 United Kingdom
€14M
Investing / deploying
Twin Track VenturesEmerging / specialist micro-funds🇬🇧 United Kingdom
€12M
Raising / target
Final FrontierEmerging / specialist micro-funds🇩🇰 Denmark
€4.5M
Raising / target
Angel One FundEmerging / specialist micro-funds🇺🇦 Ukraine
€2.8M
Investing / deploying
Luminova VenturesEmerging / specialist micro-funds🇨🇿 Czechia
<€50M
Raising / target
MD-One VenturesEmerging / specialist micro-funds🇬🇧 United Kingdom
<€50M
Raising / target
ScaleWolfEmerging / specialist micro-funds🇱🇹 Lithuania
<€50M
Raising / target


About the compiler.



Reading the European capital landscape for defence? Listeds brings the Nordic capital community together with the companies defining the defence, security and resilience sector at our defence investor event in Helsinki on 21 September 2026: an evening of company pitches and direct conversation for the people who allocate, research and steward capital across the region. Apply for a seat at the event.


Investor Event

Listeds Investor Event · Defence

Nordic defence is in a once-in-a-generation growth cycle. Eight listed and pre-IPO companies pitch to 100+ invited investors at Valkoinen Sali, Helsinki

21 September 2026

Investor Event

Listeds Investor Event · Defence

Nordic defence is in a once-in-a-generation growth cycle. Eight listed and pre-IPO companies pitch to 100+ invited investors at Valkoinen Sali, Helsinki

21 September 2026



Authors

Founder and ceo

Helene Auramo is a co-founder of Listeds and Nordic Listed Leaders. She has previously co-founded Slush, Indiedays, Zipipop, and Okimo Clinic, building ventures at the intersection of media, technology, and community. She holds board positions at the Finnish Business School Graduates (Suomen Ekonomit) and Finnvera, and serves as Chair of the Investment Committee at the Finnish Business School Graduates. Helene is also a columnist for Talouselämä, Finland’s leading business magazine, and Aamulehti, one of the country’s largest newspapers. Her work focuses on leadership, growth, and the structures that shape decision-making in Nordic companies. She was awarded Future Board Member of the Year in 2022 by Future Board.

Founder and ceo

Helene Auramo is a co-founder of Listeds and Nordic Listed Leaders. She has previously co-founded Slush, Indiedays, Zipipop, and Okimo Clinic, building ventures at the intersection of media, technology, and community. She holds board positions at the Finnish Business School Graduates (Suomen Ekonomit) and Finnvera, and serves as Chair of the Investment Committee at the Finnish Business School Graduates. Helene is also a columnist for Talouselämä, Finland’s leading business magazine, and Aamulehti, one of the country’s largest newspapers. Her work focuses on leadership, growth, and the structures that shape decision-making in Nordic companies. She was awarded Future Board Member of the Year in 2022 by Future Board.

Authors

Founder and ceo

Helene Auramo is a co-founder of Listeds and Nordic Listed Leaders. She has previously co-founded Slush, Indiedays, Zipipop, and Okimo Clinic, building ventures at the intersection of media, technology, and community. She holds board positions at the Finnish Business School Graduates (Suomen Ekonomit) and Finnvera, and serves as Chair of the Investment Committee at the Finnish Business School Graduates. Helene is also a columnist for Talouselämä, Finland’s leading business magazine, and Aamulehti, one of the country’s largest newspapers. Her work focuses on leadership, growth, and the structures that shape decision-making in Nordic companies. She was awarded Future Board Member of the Year in 2022 by Future Board.

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All Listeds newsletters (bundle)

One sign-up, the full picture.

Get every Listeds newsletter: the daily signal drumbeat, the weekly Pulse briefing, the monthly Best of the Month, the CEO letter, and the Weekend read.

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Investor Event

Listeds Investor Event · Defence

Nordic defence is in a once-in-a-generation growth cycle. Eight listed and pre-IPO companies pitch to 100+ invited investors at Valkoinen Sali, Helsinki

21 September 2026

Latest on Listeds

Market Signals

The world will cross 1.5°C within a few years, UNEP says. The EU dropped the duty to plan for it in March.

Sep 11, 2026

Net-zero alone would not bring temperatures back to 1.5°C before the second half of the 22nd century. The report says most developed countries now need net-negative targets beyond 2050. The Omnibus made having a transition plan at all optional.

The UN Environment Programme published Limiting Overshoot: Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C and pathways towards return on 2 September 2026. Its opening line is a position, not a projection: global warming is set to cross 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, likely within the next few years. Even an optimistic scenario of full implementation of all national climate plans plus additional net-zero targets puts expected peak temperature rise at 1.8°C.

"There are no good outcomes if we remain above 1.5°C," said Inger Andersen, UNEP's Executive Director, on publication.

The best available case and the breaking point are the same number

That 1.8°C appears twice, in two roles. It is the peak under the most optimistic scenario. It is also the level past which the return trip stops working: beyond around 1.8°C, decline to 1.5°C during the 21st century becomes increasingly challenging.

The best case available therefore sits at the threshold where coming back down becomes hard. The report's own verdict: by no means an acceptable or preferred pathway, simply the best remaining option.

Net-zero is a milestone towards net-negative

That is the report's own section heading, and its point is that mitigation policy can no longer be framed solely around reaching zero.

The math here deserves a second read. Global net-zero would produce a temperature decline of roughly 0.3°C per century, so if mitigation stops there, a return to 1.5°C is unlikely before the second half of the 22nd century, even at a 1.8°C peak. Keeping a return within credible reach relies at a minimum on net-negative targets for most developed countries beyond 2050. Every Nordic economy is in that group.

For a Nordic listed company holding a 2035 or 2040 net-zero commitment, the commitment is not what comes under pressure. Its sufficiency as an endpoint does.

The obligation went in March

The Omnibus I Directive was published in the Official Journal on 26 February 2026 and entered into force on 18 March. It removed from the CSDDD the requirement to adopt and implement a climate transition plan. Member states have until 19 March 2027 to transpose the reporting changes, so national law in Helsinki, Stockholm and Copenhagen is still catching up. Under the CSRD a company discloses information about a plan where it has one, and nothing obliges it to have one. Scope narrowed at the same time, to more than 1,000 employees and turnover above €450 million, leaving much of the Nordic mid-cap universe outside mandatory reporting. Outside banking and the Paris conditions on green bonds, the duty is voluntary.

Some of the Nordic names were on the other side of the rollback

The narrowing was not something Nordic large caps asked for. Nokia, Nordea, Ingka Group and Vattenfall were among 194 organisations that signed a joint statement on 1 July 2025 urging the EU not to weaken the CSRD and CSDDD. Listeds covered the case for holding the line in a commercial partnership column by Riikka Kuha of Hannes Snellman in November 2025.

What still moves the number

The report is not fatalistic, and it is specific about where the leverage sits.

Every fraction of a degree avoided, and every year by which overshoot is shortened, saves lives, protects ecosystems and reduces economic losses. The fastest lever in the immediate term is methane and other short-lived climate pollutants, because cutting them slows the rate of warming quickly rather than decades out. After that the sequence is deep and sustained decarbonisation to at least net-zero as temperatures peak, then sustained net-negative CO2 emissions as they decline.

The report is blunt about the deadline on that last capability. Decisions made during the coming decade will shape technology, infrastructure and land-use choices, determining whether countries retain the capacity to move beyond net zero if required.

Which is the practical translation for a Nordic board. March removed the requirement to hold a transition plan. It did not remove the decade in which the plan had to be made.

Market Signals

Finland lands Google's €13bn; Fortum sells half of Loviisa's output to 2049

Sep 10, 2026

Google will invest at least €13 billion in Finnish digital infrastructure across 2027 and 2028, with data centres and supporting infrastructure in Hamina, Kajaani, Muhos and Vaala. It is the company's largest single investment in Europe. For scale: annual industrial investment in Finland normally totals around €10 billion, and Etla puts the €13 billion at roughly a fifth of all investment flowing into the country in a year. 

Google announced the investment on 9 September. It has operated in Finland since 2009 and is developing new infrastructure in Hamina, Kajaani, Muhos and Vaala 

Fortum has signed a 22-year power purchase agreement with Google covering up to 50% of Loviisa's capacity. Offtake begins in 2028 at a reduced volume and runs at half the plant's capacity from 2030 to 2049. The two parties also signed a memorandum of understanding to explore new flexibility capacity and new generation, including potential new reactors at Loviisa

The political reception 

Every named Finnish voice in Google's release welcomed the investment without qualification: the prime minister, the climate and environment minister, and the municipal leaders of all four host locations. The caution came from outside it.

Prime Minister Petteri Orpo said “Finland is an attractive destination for investments, and attracting further investment remains a top priority". Speaking at Google's announcement event, he took on the question the build raises for households: energy prices will not rise because of the investments. He also said public debate in Finland tends to underestimate data centres, and that the investments mean jobs for Finns.

Climate and Environment Minister Sari Multala tied her support to supply, saying “These investments are very welcome in Finland and demonstrate that it is possible to invest in AI infrastructure in a way that benefits both local communities and the broader energy system, including other energy users. This long-term approach and commitment are exactly what we need to generate value for both investors and Finnish society. A long-term agreement with an energy company helps ensure that new electricity generation capacity is developed to meet growing demand"

The four municipalities emphasised grid position and local business. Vaala's municipal manager Minna Kärkkäinen said the municipality "is located at a key point in Finland's main electricity grid, which makes it an attractive location for industry and energy projects"; Hamina, Kajaani and Muhos pointed to regional economy, jobs and the data economy.

Outside the release, EK director Sami Pakarinen told Verkkouutiset that "this is, if anything, fantastic news for the Finnish economy." 

The market reaction 

Fortum closed at €21.36 on 8 September, a quiet 0.7% gain that left it up 17.5% from the 2025 year-end close of €18.18. The next session was anything but quiet. The stock jumped 15.8% on 9 September to close at €24.74 after the Google nuclear deal, its sharpest one-day gain in at least a year, taking the year-to-date advance to 36.1%

Fortum has said the agreement is expected to raise the group's comparable return on net assets by approximately 1.4 percentage points over time, once half the plant's output is contracted.

What the contract secures

Loviisa's two units are licensed by the end of 2050. The Finnish government granted that extension in February 2023, replacing licences valid to 2027 and 2030. Fortum has a lifetime-extension investment programme of about €1 billion under way — ten portfolios, more than 300 projects and states that without those investments the plant could not continue producing after 2030.

CEO Markus Rauramo said long-term partnerships are essential "especially in today's uncertain market environment characterized by low visibility and highly volatile electricity prices." Loviisa supplies around 10% of Finland's electricity and employs about 580 people.

Ownership and disclosure

Fortum is majority state-owned; the Finnish State holds just over half the shares. Half of the plant's capacity is contracted to one counterparty for the years 2030–2049. Neither party has disclosed the contract price, and Fortum's 1.4-percentage-point RONA guidance is the only quantification of the deal's value available to shareholders. The MoU on new capacity at Loviisa carries no announced timetable or investment figure.

The rest of the energy package

Onshore wind PPAs with Valorem (Ostrobothnia) and Suomen Hyötytuuli (Ostrobothnia and Central Finland) take Google's new-to-grid onshore wind capacity to 629 MW more than the roughly 446 MW Google had previously contracted across five announced PPAs in Finland. A contracted 94 MW battery system near Kajaani is expected operational in late 2027. Fingrid CEO Asta Sihvonen-Punkka said of the site choices: "Our aim is to keep the costs of the growing electricity system competitive, while reducing environmental impacts."

Google also committed €31 million over four years across the four municipalities, including €10 million for research and innovation, AI skills training for over 4,400 workers through Google.org's AI Opportunity Fund, and a programme with EKAMI to train up to 100 students a year for data centre roles.

The economic projections, and the challenge to them

Google projects an average €3.6 billion annual contribution to Finnish GDP during construction, more than 37,000 jobs nationwide — about 16,000 in construction, at an average €911 million in annual labour income — and 7,000 jobs a year once operational, at wages 24% above the Finnish median. 

Yle put the projections to Google's own Gemini, which judged the claim "economically and in scale heavily exaggerated, and conceptually misleading". Etla senior researcher Sakari Lähdemäki was more measured: "I'm critical too, but not that critical." He said €13 billion equals roughly a fifth of all annual investment into Finland, and that the decisive question is how much of it leaves the country again as imported hardware. On Yle's calculation from Google's own figures, about half the €13 billion goes on semiconductors and other materials and equipment imported from abroad, which do not add to Finnish GDP. "Imports aren't 100% of it, so some production inevitably stays in Finland too," Lähdemäki said. On the employment figures: "Google has calculated these perhaps more optimistically than with any great precautionary principle." Data centres, he said, employ heavily during construction and are largely automated afterwards.

Against Google's own capital budget, the Finnish commitment is small: Alphabet's reported 2026 capital expenditure guidance is between USD 195 billion and USD 205 billion, up from a previous range of USD 180 billion to USD 190 billion.

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