Kati Kaksonen joins Framery from Terveystalo as IR director

Net-zero alone would not bring temperatures back to 1.5°C before the second half of the 22nd century. The report says most developed countries now need net-negative targets beyond 2050. The Omnibus made having a transition plan at all optional.

The UN Environment Programme published Limiting Overshoot: Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C and pathways towards return on 2 September 2026. Its opening line is a position, not a projection: global warming is set to cross 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, likely within the next few years. Even an optimistic scenario of full implementation of all national climate plans plus additional net-zero targets puts expected peak temperature rise at 1.8°C.

"There are no good outcomes if we remain above 1.5°C," said Inger Andersen, UNEP's Executive Director, on publication.

The best available case and the breaking point are the same number

That 1.8°C appears twice, in two roles. It is the peak under the most optimistic scenario. It is also the level past which the return trip stops working: beyond around 1.8°C, decline to 1.5°C during the 21st century becomes increasingly challenging.

The best case available therefore sits at the threshold where coming back down becomes hard. The report's own verdict: by no means an acceptable or preferred pathway, simply the best remaining option.

Net-zero is a milestone towards net-negative

That is the report's own section heading, and its point is that mitigation policy can no longer be framed solely around reaching zero.

The math here deserves a second read. Global net-zero would produce a temperature decline of roughly 0.3°C per century, so if mitigation stops there, a return to 1.5°C is unlikely before the second half of the 22nd century, even at a 1.8°C peak. Keeping a return within credible reach relies at a minimum on net-negative targets for most developed countries beyond 2050. Every Nordic economy is in that group.

For a Nordic listed company holding a 2035 or 2040 net-zero commitment, the commitment is not what comes under pressure. Its sufficiency as an endpoint does.

The obligation went in March

The Omnibus I Directive was published in the Official Journal on 26 February 2026 and entered into force on 18 March. It removed from the CSDDD the requirement to adopt and implement a climate transition plan. Member states have until 19 March 2027 to transpose the reporting changes, so national law in Helsinki, Stockholm and Copenhagen is still catching up. Under the CSRD a company discloses information about a plan where it has one, and nothing obliges it to have one. Scope narrowed at the same time, to more than 1,000 employees and turnover above €450 million, leaving much of the Nordic mid-cap universe outside mandatory reporting. Outside banking and the Paris conditions on green bonds, the duty is voluntary.

Google will invest at least €13 billion in Finnish digital infrastructure across 2027 and 2028, with data centres and supporting infrastructure in Hamina, Kajaani, Muhos and Vaala. It is the company's largest single investment in Europe. For scale: annual industrial investment in Finland normally totals around €10 billion, and Etla puts the €13 billion at roughly a fifth of all investment flowing into the country in a year. 

Google announced the investment on 9 September. It has operated in Finland since 2009 and is developing new infrastructure in Hamina, Kajaani, Muhos and Vaala 

Fortum has signed a 22-year power purchase agreement with Google covering up to 50% of Loviisa's capacity. Offtake begins in 2028 at a reduced volume and runs at half the plant's capacity from 2030 to 2049. The two parties also signed a memorandum of understanding to explore new flexibility capacity and new generation, including potential new reactors at Loviisa

The political reception 

Every named Finnish voice in Google's release welcomed the investment without qualification: the prime minister, the climate and environment minister, and the municipal leaders of all four host locations. The caution came from outside it.

Prime Minister Petteri Orpo said “Finland is an attractive destination for investments, and attracting further investment remains a top priority". Speaking at Google's announcement event, he took on the question the build raises for households: energy prices will not rise because of the investments. He also said public debate in Finland tends to underestimate data centres, and that the investments mean jobs for Finns.

Climate and Environment Minister Sari Multala tied her support to supply, saying “These investments are very welcome in Finland and demonstrate that it is possible to invest in AI infrastructure in a way that benefits both local communities and the broader energy system, including other energy users. This long-term approach and commitment are exactly what we need to generate value for both investors and Finnish society. A long-term agreement with an energy company helps ensure that new electricity generation capacity is developed to meet growing demand"

The four municipalities emphasised grid position and local business. Vaala's municipal manager Minna Kärkkäinen said the municipality "is located at a key point in Finland's main electricity grid, which makes it an attractive location for industry and energy projects"; Hamina, Kajaani and Muhos pointed to regional economy, jobs and the data economy.

Outside the release, EK director Sami Pakarinen told Verkkouutiset that "this is, if anything, fantastic news for the Finnish economy." 

The market reaction 

Fortum closed at €21.36 on 8 September, a quiet 0.7% gain that left it up 17.5% from the 2025 year-end close of €18.18. The next session was anything but quiet. The stock jumped 15.8% on 9 September to close at €24.74 after the Google nuclear deal, its sharpest one-day gain in at least a year, taking the year-to-date advance to 36.1%

Fortum has said the agreement is expected to raise the group's comparable return on net assets by approximately 1.4 percentage points over time, once half the plant's output is contracted.

What the contract secures

Loviisa's two units are licensed by the end of 2050. The Finnish government granted that extension in February 2023, replacing licences valid to 2027 and 2030. Fortum has a lifetime-extension investment programme of about €1 billion under way — ten portfolios, more than 300 projects and states that without those investments the plant could not continue producing after 2030.

CEO Markus Rauramo said long-term partnerships are essential "especially in today's uncertain market environment characterized by low visibility and highly volatile electricity prices." Loviisa supplies around 10% of Finland's electricity and employs about 580 people.