The consumer confidence indicator stood at 4.9 below zero in September, down from 3.0 below zero in August. August had been the strongest reading since February 2022. The long-term average since 1995 is 2.9 below zero. The indicator has now been below zero for 55 consecutive months, every month since March 2022.
The rebound itself was fast. In April the indicator sat at 12.5 below zero, and by August it had recovered 9.5 points. September's dip is small, and one month does not make a reversal. What matters more is which parts of the survey carried the recovery, and which did not.
The national outlook has recovered 18 points since April, the household view far less
Most of the improvement since April's low has come from how consumers see Finland. The national outlook accounts for about 60 per cent of the indicator's 7.6-point rise. Consumers' view of their own past year has moved far less.
Expectations for Finland's economy over the next 12 months improved from a balance of 23.2 below zero in April to 4.7 below zero in September, which is on its long-term average level. Between March 2022 and August 2026, the same measure averaged 16.9 below zero.
Households' assessment of their own finances tells a different story. The balance for own economy now stood at 1.9 below zero in September, against an average of 4.9 above zero in the five and a half years before March 2022. Expectations for one's own economy in 12 months fell to 5.8 from 8.1 in August, short of the pre-2022 average of 9.8. Twenty-eight per cent of consumers said their finances were worse than a year earlier, while 25 per cent said better.
The gap follows income, not prices
Labour Institute for Economic Research Labore estimates that purchasing power in the bottom income decile will decline by 3.5 per cent this year, while the top decile gains 2.2 per cent. Between 2023 and 2026, the difference in purchasing power growth between the two groups will exceed 16 percentage points, with renters and single parents facing the weakest outlook. Senior researcher Milla Nyyssölä attributes the split to "different income trajectories" rather than prices.
Labore describes this as unusual by historical standards. Even in the growth years after Finland's 1990s recession, when income growth varied widely between groups, purchasing power in the lowest decile did not fall.
The confidence survey shows the same fault line. Upper-level salaried employees posted a confidence reading of 1.1 above zero in September, while the unemployed stood at 13.1 below zero and pensioners at 11.5 below zero. Greater Helsinki recorded 2.4 below zero and Eastern Finland 10.7 below zero. Women's reading of 7.4 below zero remained well under men's 2.4 below zero.
Job security is part of the explanation. Among employed consumers, 27 per cent felt their personal risk of unemployment or lay-off had increased, and only 5 per cent felt it had lessened (Statistics Finland). Price pressure has not eased either: consumers estimated inflation at 4.9 per cent over the past year and expect 4.1 per cent over the next.
Durable spending sentiment has been negative for 55 months, yet car and loan plans run above usual
The balance for whether now is a good time to buy durable goods stood at 13.0 below zero in September. It has been below zero every month since March 2022, after averaging 19.2 above zero in the preceding five and a half years. Only 15 per cent of consumers considered the time favourable for expensive purchases, and 37 per cent planned to cut spending on durables over the next year, against 13 per cent planning to increase it.
The exception is big-ticket purchases. Seventeen per cent of consumers were definitely or possibly planning to buy a car within 12 months, and 19 per cent planned to take out a loan, both clearly more than usual according to Statistics Finland . The published figures do not show which households hold those plans. One reading fits Labore's data: the top income decile is gaining purchasing power this year, and those households are best placed to finance a car. The other is that some borrowing plans reflect strain rather than confidence. The data cannot yet separate the two.
For consumer-facing companies on Nasdaq Helsinki, that uncertainty is itself the finding. September's survey describes a recovery in expectations, not yet in household income, and it is arriving at different speeds for different customers. The signal to watch is whether consumers' view of their own past year starts to follow the national outlook. Until it does, plans built on the Finnish average will be calibrated to sentiment rather than spending power.
