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Business

Economists surprised as Finland's output grows 2.8% in May

Jun 30, 2026

Finland's economy is showing firmer signs of recovery than many economists expected just a few weeks ago. Fresh data suggest the upswing that began earlier this year is continuing, offering cautious optimism after a prolonged period of weak growth, Kauppalehti reported today, citing two chief economists.

Finland's total output increased 2.8 percent in May compared with the same month last year, adjusted for working days, Akava Chief Economist Pasi Sorjonen posted on X today, citing official data. Output also rose 0.8 percent from April, while April's growth figures were revised upward. Sorjonen said the second quarter has started "much stronger than expected."

MuniFin (Kuntarahoitus) Chief Economist Timo Vesala reached a similar conclusion. "The economy's momentum has genuinely turned," he posted on X, while cautioning that monthly indicators can fluctuate. He added that the overall picture has "changed significantly for the better during the past month."

The stronger data comes despite earlier concerns that geopolitical risks, including potential disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, could weaken second-quarter growth. Those fears have yet to appear in the domestic figures.

Both economists stopped short of declaring victory. Sorjonen warned that it is too early to assume the current pace of growth will continue throughout the year. Vesala said a durable recovery will depend on stronger household spending and a decline in unemployment. If private consumption strengthens, he believes Finland's economy could recover at a pace approaching 3 percent.

Business

Statistics Finland upgrades 2025 growth outlook to 0.8% after export surge

Jun 17, 2026

Finland’s economy performed better than expected in 2025, but the recovery remains uneven. Revised figures show GDP grew 0.8 percent, four times the pace initially estimated, driven largely by stronger exports and a rebound in several industrial sectors.

Exports were the main force behind the upgrade. Statistics Finland revised its earlier growth estimate from 0.2 percent to 0.8 percent today after stronger data from foreign trade and key industries. Growth was strongest in information and communications, mining, pharmaceuticals, oil refining, and defense manufacturing.

The improvement in external demand is beginning to filter through to the labor market. Industries that expanded exports added jobs even as total employment across the economy declined. Finland’s current account also returned to surplus in 2025, reflecting stronger trade performance.

Not every sector is participating in the recovery. Paper manufacturing continues to face structural challenges, while construction remains stuck in a prolonged downturn. Output has stabilized, but a clear return to growth has yet to emerge.

The contrast is equally visible in domestic demand. Private investment remains subdued, weighed down by weak construction activity, although data center projects have provided pockets of growth. Household consumption also remained restrained as the savings rate rose to 6.1 percent and household indebtedness continued to fall.

The latest figures point to an economy that is recovering, but one still dependent on demand from abroad rather than a broad-based domestic rebound.

Business

Ministry trims Finland’s 2026 growth outlook to 0.8% as energy costs rise

Jun 16, 2026

Finland's economy is still growing, but the recovery now looks more fragile than the finance ministry expected six months ago.

In its summer forecast published today, the ministry said rising energy prices, higher interest rates, and uncertainty linked to the Middle East crisis are slowing the country's return to stronger growth. GDP is forecast to expand by 0.8 percent in 2026, before accelerating to 1.6 percent in 2027 and 1.7 percent in 2028.

That marks a downgrade from the ministry's December 2025 forecast, which projected 1.1 percent growth in 2026. At the time, officials expected improving household consumption, stronger employment, and a gradual recovery in construction to support the economy.

The biggest change is the external environment. Higher oil prices have pushed inflation higher, weakened household purchasing power, and darkened export market prospects. Consumer confidence remains subdued, while the labor market has deteriorated more than expected. The ministry now expects unemployment to reach 10.4 percent in 2026. In December, it anticipated employment would begin improving this year, and that unemployment would gradually fall.

The fiscal outlook has changed little. In both forecasts, the ministry warned that economic growth alone will not repair Finland's public finances. Today's report projects public debt will approach 99 percent of GDP by 2030, up from an estimate of just over 96 percent in last December's forecast.

The shift in the forecasts is small in percentage terms but meaningful in direction. Finland's economy is still moving forward. The public finances underpinning it are moving further into the red.

Leaders

Finland needs a more forward-looking discussion about growth, says SDP Economist Youssef Zad

Apr 28, 2026

Finland’s strained public finances leave little room for error. For Youssef Zad, that makes one thing clear. Growth funding needs to be far more deliberate.

“We are operating within very tight constraints,” says Zad, who recently moved from the startup world into politics. “That means we have to be extremely deliberate about where we allocate resources for growth.”

Earlier this month, Zad moved from chief economist at the Finnish Startup Community to a one-year economist position within the Social Democratic Parliamentary Group. The shift brings him closer to policymaking, even if indirectly. “I don’t hold decision-making power myself,” he notes, “but I now have a more direct channel to contribute ideas that shape policy.”

Capital is more pressing than talent in scaling phase

If one constraint stands out in his thinking, it is capital, though not at the expense of talent. “Talent is a challenge, but it is manageable through policy,” he explains, pointing to immigration and tax incentives. “The more pressing issue is access to capital.”

He notes that the United States has built much of its innovation capacity on the back of highly skilled immigration, a model Europe could draw from. In that sense, the talent question is solvable. Capital, however, becomes decisive as companies scale. “Competing with the scale of investment in the United States is difficult, and Europe needs stronger local funding mechanisms.”

Before his latest appointment, Zad served the Finnish Startup Community first as an economist and later as chief economist for four years. Photo provided by Zad.

That perspective reflects his background in the startup ecosystem, where access to funding often determines whether ideas scale. The move into politics, however, has changed the pace of decision-making. “The biggest change is the pace of work,” he says. In the startup world, there is time to analyze and reflect. In politics, decisions move quickly. “You have to respond in real time, often without the luxury of deep background work.”

The shift itself is less ideological than it might appear. “Founders tend to be pragmatic. They are willing to work with any party that brings forward good ideas.” His own path followed a similar logic. “This wasn’t a predetermined choice. It evolved over time through collaboration and dialogue.”

Growth through technology

What remains consistent is his view on growth. “Sustainable economic growth ultimately comes from technological progress. Small, young companies are often the ones driving those breakthroughs.”

Artificial intelligence is a clear example. “AI is a foundational technology, comparable to electricity or the steam engine. The key question is not only who builds the best models, but who applies them most effectively across industries.”

He also sees a growing overlap between defense and energy policy. “Security today extends beyond traditional defense. It includes energy resilience and the ability to maintain critical systems under pressure.” Technologies that strengthen both areas, from renewable energy to dual-use innovations, are likely to play a larger role.

At the same time, innovation can emerge from less obvious sectors. He points to Finnish company Solar Foods, which produces a protein using a fermentation process powered by air and solar energy. “If food production can be decoupled from geography, it fundamentally changes how we think about supply chains and resilience.”

Underlying his thinking is a broader critique of Finland’s economic conversation. “There is a strong focus on fiscal adjustments and spending cuts,” he says. “But we need a more forward-looking discussion about growth. Without that, it becomes difficult to build a credible long-term strategy.”

For now, Zad is still adjusting to his new role, with his attention firmly on one issue: how to convert innovation into long-term economic growth.

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